Is 2026 a Good Year for the Northern Lights? The Solar Cycle and the Data
Is 2026 a good year for the northern lights? The solar maximum, the Kp record year by year since 2008, and what it means for the 2026 to 2027 season.
Yes: 2026 is still a good year for the northern lights. NASA and NOAA announced on 15 October 2024 that the Sun had reached the maximum period of its 11-year cycle, and activity stays high in the years after a maximum. In the GFZ Kp record, 39.3% of 2025’s three-hour windows reached Kp 3 or more, the highest share of any year since 2008, and 2026 so far is at 26.4% (to 2026-10-21), ahead of every year from 2016 to 2023. No one can forecast a season, only the next few days, so the safest booking is still one that covers a cloudy night, such as Northern Lights Bus’s Reykjavik tour, from US$81 as of October 2026, with a free follow-up tour.
The record, year by year
| Year | Kp 3 or more | Kp 5 or more |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 14.5% | 0.6% |
| 2009 | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| 2010 | 9.5% | 0.8% |
| 2011 | 12.9% | 1.6% |
| 2012 | 17.2% | 2.6% |
| 2013 | 14.6% | 1.6% |
| 2014 | 14.8% | 0.8% |
| 2015 | 26.8% | 4.4% |
| 2016 | 24.6% | 2.7% |
| 2017 | 24% | 2.5% |
| 2018 | 11.9% | 0.9% |
| 2019 | 9.3% | 0.7% |
| 2020 | 7.4% | 0.1% |
| 2021 | 13.3% | 0.9% |
| 2022 | 23.9% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | 23.1% | 2.8% |
| 2024 | 19.5% | 3.3% |
| 2025 | 39.3% | 5.3% |
| 2026 (to 2026-10-21) | 26.4% | 3.8% |
Kp index: GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (Matzka et al. 2021, doi:10.5880/Kp.0001), CC BY 4.0. All three-hour windows, day and night. Checked October 2026.
What the numbers say
The last solar cycle peaked in 2014, yet 2015 was more active: 26.8% of its windows reached Kp 3, against 14.8% in 2014. The quietest years were near the minimum, 9.3% in 2019 and 7.4% in 2020. This cycle, 2025 reached 39.3%, with 5.3% at Kp 5, storm level. The pattern, a busy year or two after the maximum, is why the 2026 to 2027 winter should still be a good one. The decline has begun, though: 2026 so far is at 26.4% against 2025’s 39.3%, and activity should keep falling towards the next minimum, around 2030 on NOAA’s cycle forecast. Strong storms still come on the way down.
Does a stronger year matter under the oval?
Less than you might think. At Reykjavik, Tromsø or Yellowknife the oval is overhead at a low Kp on NOAA’s rule of thumb, so even an average year shows the lights on most clear dark nights. A stronger year matters most for places further south, and for the size and colour of the displays. The thing that still decides a night everywhere is cloud.
The honest answer
A good year does not guarantee your week. The forecast is free and goes only a few days ahead. What a tour adds is the part a good year cannot: a guide who reads the cloud and drives to the clear sky, and on Northern Lights Bus’s tours a free retry for three years if you see nothing.
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Sources: NASA and NOAA solar maximum announcement, 15 October 2024 (NASA, NOAA SWPC); Kp index, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (Matzka et al. 2021), CC BY 4.0, checked October 2026.
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